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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.17 05:28:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Death Kill on 17/09/2007 05:30:43 Saw this very interesting documentary last night about what will happen when oil runs out.
Oil production in the west peaked uh (iirc)in the 70's and has slowly started to decrease. SaudiArabia witch now sits on 2/3 of the world reserves is at its peak according to the oil industry itself. And when most of the oil is gone, it would be too costly to extract the small pockets of oil found here and there.
Now a lot of people say that we can find different energy sources. But even if you combine solar power with wind and bio fuwel you would still only have a tiny fraction of the amount needed to continue our current lifestyle. If we were to go nuclear we would need to build 20000 BIG nuclear reactors and it will deplete the world uranium reserves in 20 years.
We are now at the peak of the oil age, the top of the mountain. But now that we are on the top theres downhill all around us, it may be a near vertical fall of it might be smoother, time will tell. One thing is almost for sure and thats that in 3 generations time only 1/10 of the world 1% richest will be able to fly or drive a car.
Theres also those that say that if humans really had to develop technology that can replace oil, they could do it in a decade like in the 60's when Kennedy said the US where going to put a man on the moon by the end of the decade. Well think of it more like this, it would be like saying we should colonize Pluto with 100000 humans by the end of the decade....an impossible task.
The US with its infrastructure would suffer a lot as their cities are designed with cars in mind. People in suburbia would be screwed. And cities had to be redesigned in order to house an effective public transportation. Europeans are lucky that way as their cities were buildt before the automobile was invented.
China and India witch today are desperately copying the west in order to become more developed have arrived to the party when the glass is half empty, and their thirst for oil will only increase. Anyhow, this documentary was a real sober reminder of just how much free rides cheap oil has given us, and that its thanks to oil alone that we have seen this remarkable growth here in the west for the past 100 years.
And the most disturbing part was that without all that cheap oil, the world would only be able to support a population of maybe 1-2 billion. Thats a lot less than the 6 billion people that will live here in 2030.
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.17 06:08:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Fallen Elite
Sounds like a bunch of bull**** to me, even electric cars are at a point where they can be mass produced and sold around the globe. They can't replace the oil-based cars yet, for reasons a little more obvious than I could make them, but they're there and available.
And where do you find this electricaty.... A hole in the ground?
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However, there's been a rise of alternate energy sources lately, christ, even Sal****er's been found to be incredibly useful as a means of producing energy, whether it's cost effect is still not known.
Once some real development has been put into Nuclear Fusion, enough so that we can create and conserve 100% of the energy produced, we're set for life.
I dont thinky you even read what I wrote. All these alternatives are irrelevant simply for the fact that we have had so much cheap energy, oil cannot be rivaled.
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.17 06:10:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Terail Zoqial I thinks it's pretty cool tbh, the end of the oil age.
There have been talks for years about various individuals who have sold their ideas of biofuels etc to the big petrolium complanies, also, the big companies will have alternatives as they still want to be in the fuel game.
Bring on teh revilution
Yeah they mentioned bio fuel too, they said it was not really an option as it wont even cover a tiny fraction of the energy need. Also, producing biofuel creates karbon-dioxide.
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.17 06:29:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Death Kill on 17/09/2007 06:32:26 I'm desperatly searching for its name, but the stupid online tv guide doesnt have last weeks schedual.
I can say this though, it had expert opinions made by ceo's of international oil companies as well as several professors and stuff. The documentary had no conspiracy elements in it.
edit : A Crude Awakening - The Oil Crash.
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.17 06:59:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Death Kill on 17/09/2007 07:00:43
Originally by: Erotic Irony
Originally by: Death Kill I'm desperatly searching for its name, but the stupid online tv guide doesnt have last weeks schedual.
I can say this though, it had expert opinions made by ceo's of international oil companies as well as several professors and stuff. The documentary had no conspiracy elements in it.
it could have plenty of so called experts but it could still be an intellectually sloppy mess; with the internet we've seen plenty of free reign given to a lot of indy documentaries but just because you have experts or something to say doesn't mean you're committed to intellectual honesty and balance.
just sayin
I know what you mean, but this was a propper documentary. Thats why I added the 'not tinfoil' in the topic title ;)
edit : cheers for the links Nova Z :)
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.17 07:09:00 -
[6]
Originally by: zibelthurdos the oil peak worry has been around ,well yes since the 70's.
but what most people don't know is great strides are being made in the area of oil shale.
there are huge deposits of it, around 3.3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil, the only reason it's not relied on now is that liquid oil is more profitable. so those of us waiting around for the end of oil and a converison to tinhgs like hydrogen fuel cells will need to wait a couple hundred more years.
Linkage
Not really, as its not nearly enough to cover our consumption. Also, oil shale devestates the enviroment.
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Posted - 2007.09.17 08:18:00 -
[7]
Originally by: zibelthurdos
and we aren't already?
Both yes and no.
Canadians are strip mining for oil witch just leaves a huge crater the 'size of Texas' (metaphorical speaking) witch kills all local fauna. Imagine this being done on a massive, global scale.
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Posted - 2007.09.17 09:11:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Cornucopian
He told me that never in the history of man has there ever been a reason to develop technology because something ran out, nor will there ever be in the future.
We didnt invent bronze weapons because of lack of rocks, and we didnt invent steel because the iron ran out. Nor do we devlop new tech today because oil is running out so fast as people would have you believe. Next to oil we use vast quantities of Coal and natural gas, which are the main suppliers of energy in the world, and have nothing to with oil. We're already cutting vast swathes of virgin rain forest in S. America to plant corps for biodiesel and other biofuels. Lexus, Prius, peugot, Porsche and many other car makers are building hybrid cars.
coal only took as so far, it was with oil we finally got a source of cheap energy. And it was from oil we got the high standards we have had for the past 50 years.
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The main countries producing oil are investing in other things. Dubai is building a tourist trap, A saudi family has built the A1 GP: most rich saudis are moving away from oil. We do know the oil supply is finite, but the technology for other things has been around for quite a long while.
How will tourist traps, A1GP replace energy?
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The European Fusion guys plan to have an almost full fusion powercore going as a testbed in 2010: the human race has been tinkering with fusion for a long time.
Oil wont be the end of civilization. Oil will die out, and some corps will die along with it, but in the end I wouldnt worry too much about it. Countries just need to seperate their economy from the price of a vat of oil.
Plastics you say? Most plastics can be made without oil these days. Hell you can make package material and grocery bags from potato skins.
Fusion is the holy grail, its harder than you think.
and yes, when oil runs out the standard of living as you know it will drop considerably.
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Posted - 2007.09.17 09:29:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Cornucopian yo DK, recheck my original post in this thread, I just updated it with some info.
Oil will not be replaced, as it wont 'run out' for a fairly long time. Nuclear reactors will see increased usage, biomass, biofuel, and hybrid tech is seeing increased application. Oil will still be a valuable commodity, but not the main source of energy.
Hybrid Drives (Lexus) Electrical Cars (the one GM made) Hydrogen Cars (peugot)
Electric scooters (which get used in Europe a lot). There is public transport that runs on excess unsellable WINE. Cars that store energy when they brake, with the use of dynamos, houses with better insulation, reducing heating needs. Higher and stricter emission standards. A few solar panels on your house can be used to heat your water.
Fusion: The ITER project
Word. But electric cars need electricaty in order to run, hybrids needs petrol and are designed to cut back on emissions not reduce fuel usage.
The point made in that documentary is that the energy we get from oil is so overwhelmingly cheap and in such large quantities alternative energy sources simply wont be able to replace it.
To put it into perspective : In order to power Paris you would need about 50000 windmills.
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Posted - 2007.09.17 11:56:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Cornucopian
And you honestly believe that the middle easteren OPEC countries say STFU and GTFO every time the west comes calling for crude oil production hikes?
Actually they did in 1973.
The turned the oil back on after different negotiations. One of the terms being Europe letting in more Muslim immigrants.
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.17 17:54:00 -
[11]
Edited by: Death Kill on 17/09/2007 17:55:01
Originally by: Derovius Vaden
I thought the title of the thread said no tinfoiling?
You are mistaken on several counts, so I'll put them in list form:
Why come here you!
Let me kiss and pollish that wonderful bald scull of yours.
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Posted - 2007.09.19 10:59:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Sharupak
Trust me, its alot of crap.
Why because you are some type of expert with a uneversity diploma knowing more than the scientists in the documentary all professors of their field?
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Posted - 2007.09.19 11:18:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Cornucopian
no, because he quotes a scientific article that has about 50 other articles as a source and reference: all of which were written by chemists, physicists, engineers, geologists, etc. thats why. myabe read some of his crap before flaming him DK ?
I was not impressed, nor convinced by what he posted?
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Posted - 2007.09.19 12:22:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Cornucopian
abiotic petroleum sounds more than plausible to me. the interaction between the mantle and the crust could conceivably create such things
Well yeah, but there are many things that are plausible. The step from plausible to research and development is gigantic. Surely if it was a case of 'lets just follow Tessla' then all the clever people with a high income would have used their cunnings to do actually that a long time ago?
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Posted - 2007.09.19 12:40:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Cornucopian
the abiotic petroleum has nothing to do with tesla. The step is indeed gigantic, and indeed so one could construe that as a reason for most oil companies to disregard it in favor of using the biotic oil reasoning for their spelunking: this serves to keep the price high as well as costs down, since the scare of finite oil reserves is never disproved and the oil companies dont have to develop new techonology.
I know I just used tessla as an example since he posted link to it. My general impression is that whenever there are discussions like this and someone mentiones 'something that will solve everything' it seams to be pseudo science at best.
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.20 09:13:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Death Kill on 20/09/2007 09:13:39
Originally by: Sharupak
There is no diploma in any University for deductive reasoning. We have to learn that on our own. Diploma wielding professors are just as prone to publishing for viewpoints that earn them serious jack just like a politician, evangelist, or doctor
Not really, well in principle you are correct.
But in this case even a dual wielding diploma professor will have more to say simply for the fact that it is within his field. It is what he/she has specialised on and it would be completely unserious for simple laymen to draw conclusions on the same material and come up with a different answer.
Also, they have access to much more data and spend YEARS studying it, while we just pick up some here and there via the news of certian magazines.
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.20 14:27:00 -
[17]
Regarding maths, isnt maths the universal language of everything?
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Posted - 2007.09.21 13:07:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Epoch
Originally by: Erotic Irony you never told us the name of this documentary so we can evaluate its veracity for ourselves
QFT. He's desperately looking for his youtube link. A documentary on television with half a dozen different people w/ similar ideas blabbing on about "oils gunna run out real soon now, we're all gunna die!".
Yes, the name has been stated two times allready
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.21 13:08:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Derovius Vaden
Dictator is a misused term;
I think you are splitting hairs here tbh, well he is on his way anyhow. Didnt you hear about the new law he proposed wich would have him stay in power until 2017?
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.22 17:06:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Whang'Lo Edited by: Whang''Lo on 22/09/2007 11:57:26 I believe the Free market and New technologies will overcome the worlds oil shortages.
Some people believe in god, but that doesnt make his existance any more likely now does it?
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Death Kill
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Posted - 2007.09.25 06:08:00 -
[21]
Edited by: Death Kill on 25/09/2007 06:09:37
Originally by: Arron S There are 3 gas giant planets in the solar system at our disposal. So I am not scared if the oil runs out.
FACT: Hydrogen and Deuterium can be found naturally in the oceans and in planetary atmospheres esp in those gas Giants.
STFU
So tell me Einstein, do you know how long it would take to travel to one of those gas giants?
Do you know about their radiation that is so strong it would kill you in an instant? Do you know about their gravity thats so strong no space ship could escape from it? Perhaps you think we should use a giant straw to suck up all those gasses?
Your a loud mouth savage brute who dont know anything about anything. And you telling people to STFU when you spew your ignorant drivel just raises my recentment for you.
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Posted - 2007.09.25 18:40:00 -
[22]
Originally by: flaming phantom yea and you know how oil is the "black gold" right now? well once we run out of oil guess what the new "gold" will be? water
Rubbish. Oil has to be digged up. water is all around us.
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think about how hard it is to get fresh water is some remote locations, water will be such a viable recourse in the near future
It allready is. Welcome to 2007
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